Jose Ruiz

By Jose J. Ruiz – Heidrick & Struggles

Monterrey, Mexico (August 18, 2009).- Positive signs continue to bring hope that an economic recovery, though a slow and long one, has arrived. There is an emphasis on slow and long.

The peso dropped against the dollar by 1.3 percent on Monday, the single biggest drop since May 11, before climbing back and positioning itself slightly below 13 pesos per dollar around noon today.

Concerns were awaken a few days back as Finance Secretary Agustin Carstens said Mexico faces the worst “fiscal shock” in 30 years because of declining oil production. This means there will be little money left to stimulate the economy. However, the biggest factor in Mexico’s economic recovery will continue to be consumer demand in the United States simply because Mexico sends more than 80% of its exports to the U.S.

“The United States was not only at the origin of the crisis, it is central to any world recovery,” said Olivier Blanchard, the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund.

At least for now, the positive signs in the U.S. continue.

Automotive Industry
GM has called back over 1300 union workers as the company prepares to boost production during the second half of the year. In Mexico, GM recently inaugurated a transmission plant in San Luis Potosi. This is a great sign for Mexico considering 21% of exports come from the automotive industry.

Blanchard believes the recovery has started but has cautioned it can’t be sustained by government programs such “Cash for Clunkers”. The private sector needs to be the engine of economic activity.

Demand still needs to recover and it will take years for it to reach pre-recession levels but having inventories drop enough to kick-start plants that had be shut down is a great step forward.

Housing and Construction in the United States
There are still many negative sides to the housing equation in the United States. Foreclosures will continue to be fed by many variable-rate loans that will reset between now and 2012 putting downward pressure on pricing but for the first time in many years renting is now more expensive than buying for those with a good credit rating and cash in the bank.

The amount of deals in the market has stopped the price slide in places like San Diego where the medium price of a home in July stood at $320,000, up from $316,250 in June but still below July 2008′s $364,000. Some builders like KB home expect to show year-over-year increases in sales for the current quarter.

U.S. housing starts declined by 1 per cent in July, ending a two-month winning streak but despite missing expectations, watchers viewed the housing data as a largely positive development. The drop can be attributed to apartments since construction of single-family homes rose by 1 per cent to the highest level since October 2008, for the fifth straight monthly increase.

It’s too early to pop the Champaign bottle but it appears that activity in both the construction and automotive industries may have stabilized to a degree.

Jose Ruiz is a Principal in Heidrick & Struggles’ Monterrey office. As an executive recruiter he has worked on executive search projects for multinational clients in industrial sectors and consumer markets. He can be reached at +52 (818) 8625-6521 or jruiz@heidrick.com

About Heidrick & Struggles International, Inc.
The world’s premier provider of senior-level executive search and leadership consulting services. The firm’s executive recruiters and leadership experts operate from principal business centers in North America, Latin America, Europe and Asia Pacific. In Mexico, Heidrick & Struggles operates offices in Mexico City and Monterrey. For more information about Heidrick & Struggles please visit www.heidrick.com

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You Corp.
Succeed by applying to your personal life and career the same principals that propel leading corporations.

by Jose Ruiz

The exact definition of business is a matter of debate.  But without getting into much detail or controversy a business is a legally recognized organization designed to provide goods and/or services to consumers.  Formed to earn profit that will increase the wealth of its stake holders and grow the business itself.
 
If you are reading this there is a high probability that you work, you are either an employee or an entrepreneur.  It really does not matter.  In the end, you do something (your product) and someone pays for it.  People who surround you or depend on you such as your wife, kids, parents are affected by how you do it and what you get. They, along with you, are stake holders. I’m pretty sure that you and your stake holders have felt the need to increase your wealth. You are a business.
 
Working in executive search I speak to many managers and directors from Fortune 500 organizations. They are masters of business strategy and execution yet, most of the time, I get a strange look if not a blank stare when I ask how they have applied those concepts to their person and how they have used those concepts to get to where they are. I truly can’t say they got there by chance. But I’m also not sure it was always something that was planned and mapped out. There are moments in time which change the course of events, alter the paths of your career and change your professional life. Some are positive and some are negative and for most of us the majority of these events are unexpected.
 
When I ask people who have had successful careers what the secret is, the most common response is “hard work and perseverance”. Check! You won’t be successful without them. But I also know many people who have worked hard, been relentless and have fallen short of their goals. There are no guarantees that you will be successful and achieve all of your goals, but I bet you can increase your chances by applying the same business concepts great corporations use. You might already work for one and apply them everyday, you just might not be applying them to yourself.
 
Identify and understand your stakeholders
People who surround you or depend on you such as your wife, kids, parents are affected by how you do it and what you get. What are their needs today and what will they be tomorrow? Your needs and those of your other stakeholders should be your big objective.
 
Know, understand and develop your product/service 
Know what makes you valuable and think about how your current job or activities will affect that value. In the end, your employer is your client. How many potential clients do you have? Be strategic. Everything you do should be part of the creation of a unique and valuable position. A good strategy may require you to make trade-offs – Your resources are limited. Choosing what not to do is just as important as choosing what to do.
 
Create and propel your personal brand
Yes, you are a brand. Distinguish yourself and make sure you never forget that perceptions matter. People remember you and what you are by what you do and what you reflect. Work on a positive brand.
 
Apply The Hedgehog Concept (Simplicity within the Three Circles)
Good-to-Great companies do what they can do best (as opposed to what they want to do best), what they are deeply passionate about, and they focus on what drives their economic engine.
 
Be effective: Plan and execute seamlessly
Know where you want to go, plan how you are going to get there and when. Be visionary. Spot trends but stay focused and constantly reassess everything.
 
Focus, document and measure relentlessly
Use a central score board and share it with your stakeholders. Goals slip when progress is not being measured…and measured against time. Set milestones at frequent intervals. When gaps occur, question what went wrong and apply corrective actions.
 
Be ruthless with resources and stay financially flexible
We live in a world of cycles. Recessions and economic crisis will happen and most likely a few times in our lifetime. Be prepared, don’t lose focus and be sustainable. Plan long term.
 
Don’t B.S. yourself
B.S. your clients or your stakeholders and it will have an impact on your personal brand. B.S. yourself and you will be on a direct path to failure. Believe your own B.S. and you are done.

Jose Ruizis a Principal in Heidrick & Struggles’ Monterrey office. As an executive recruiter he has worked on executive search projects for multinational clients in industrial sectors and consumer markets. He can be reached at +52 (818) 8625-6521 or jruiz@heidrick.com

About Heidrick & Struggles International, Inc.
The world’s premier provider of senior-level executive search and leadership consulting services. The firm’s executive recruiters and leadership experts operate from principal business centers in North America, Latin America, Europe and Asia Pacific. In Mexico, Heidrick & Struggles operates offices in Mexico City and Monterrey. For more information about Heidrick & Struggles please visit www.heidrick.com

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By Jose Ruiz

Monterrey,  Mexico (August 5, 2009).- I’ve said it more than a few times: A full manufacturing recovery in Mexico will be slow and very dependant on the automobile industry which makes up 20 percent of Mexico’s industrial production and it looks like we are headed in the right direction.

Factory orders in the US rose in June for the fourth time in five months, an unexpected gain and the latest sign that the ailing manufacturing sector is recovering

Cash-for-clunkers, the program in the US that gives up to $4,500 in rebates for trading in old gasoline chugging cars for newer fuel-efficient vehicles has injected new life into the automotive industry. Almost 250,000 consumers have taken advantage of the program.  This is not even close to a permanent solution, but it is certainly a life line for the automotive industry when it needs it the most. Dealerships had huge inventories going into the second half of the year when 2010 models start arriving. The program coupled with the automakers’ production cuts has slimed down inventories.

Dealers in the US have reported very slim inventories of the Jeep Patriot, Ford Focus, Fusion and Honda Civic. Some GM dealers are even reporting spot shortages of full size pick-ups.

This may not fix the overall demand issue but it has at least cleaned out the excess inventory of smaller models and given manufacturers a clean slate to plan production according to demand.

All of this is good news for Mexico’s automotive industry manufacturing facilities that supply parts and assemble small and compact vehicles.

Jose Ruiz is a Principal in Heidrick & Struggles’ Monterrey office. As an executive recruiter he has worked on executive search projects for multinational clients in industrial sectors and consumer markets. He can be reached at +52 (818) 8625-6521 or jruiz@heidrick.com

About Heidrick & Struggles International, Inc.
The world’s premier provider of senior-level executive search and leadership consulting services. The firm’s executive recruiters and leadership experts operate from principal business centers in North America, Latin America, Europe and Asia Pacific. In Mexico, Heidrick & Struggles operates offices in Mexico City and Monterrey. For more information about Heidrick & Struggles please visit www.heidrick.com

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By Jose Ruiz

Monterrey,  Mexico (August 3, 2009).- Overall the free fall appears to have slowed but we are still falling.  In the US the stabilization of consumer spending, unemployment benefits and the housing markets, a lessening of financial turmoil and increased government spending all suggest the longest recession since the 1930s may be close to ending.
 
In the U.S. Manufacturing shrank in July at the slowest pace in many months and factories moved closer to stabilization. In a Bloomberg News survey, The Institute for Supply Management’s factory gauge increased to 46.5, from 44.8 in June (readings less than 50 signal contraction).
 
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan believes the worst is behind us, “collapse, I think, is now off the table…I’m pretty sure we’ve already seen the bottom… In fact, if you look at the weekly production figures for various different industries, it’s clear that we’ve turned, perhaps in the middle of last month, the middle of July.” Greenspan said.
 
U.S. Recovery will be the first step for a recovery in Mexico but other concerns are looming.  A growing deficit and falling oil output may be sleeping monsters that can put added pressure on growth, the exchange rate and an already tricky inflation scenario.

Jose Ruiz is a Principal in Heidrick & Struggles’ Monterrey office. As an executive recruiter he has worked on executive search projects for multinational clients in industrial sectors and consumer markets. He can be reached at +52 (818) 8625-6521 or jruiz@heidrick.com

About Heidrick & Struggles International, Inc.
The world’s premier provider of senior-level executive search and leadership consulting services. The firm’s executive recruiters and leadership experts operate from principal business centers in North America, Latin America, Europe and Asia Pacific. In Mexico, Heidrick & Struggles operates offices in Mexico City and Monterrey. For more information about Heidrick & Struggles please visit www.heidrick.com

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By Jose Ruiz

Monterrey,  Mexico (July 23, 2009).-  Mexican manufacturers are seeing an end to steep declines in output as U.S. companies begin ramping up orders and reducing inventory.

Overall manufacturing activity is still declining but it is doing so at a slower pace. U.S. Manufacturing declined in June at its slowest pace since August of last year, a sign that the bottom is near in the U.S. and consequently in Mexico which is closely tied to U.S. activity. Mexico last year sold 80 percent of its $291 billion in exports to the U.S.

A full manufacturing recovery in Mexico will be slow and very dependant on the automobile industry which makes up 20 percent of Mexico’s industrial production. A number that is too large to be offset by other industries.

Production in that industry sank 42 percent during the first part of 2009 as General Motors and Chrysler adjusted factory production to match lower demand in the U.S.

Local recovery will depend less on internal factors and more on U.S. consumer demand where employers cut more jobs than expected in June threatening a decrease in consumer confidence and consumer spending which will be critical for an economic recovery.  It is expected that the unemployment rate in the United States will hit its worst point until early next year.

Other indicators pointing towards hitting bottom is the factory index from The Institute for Supply Management which rose in June for a sixth consecutive month to 44.8, after hitting its lowest point in December (32.9). An index below 50 indicates a contraction. So the trend, while still reflecting a contraction is positive as the contraction rate slows. 

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Jose Ruiz is a Principal in Heidrick & Struggles’ Monterrey office. As an executive recruiter he has worked on executive search projects for multinational clients in industrial sectors and consumer markets. He can be reached at +52 (818) 8625-6521 or jruiz@heidrick.com

About Heidrick & Struggles International, Inc.
The world’s premier provider of senior-level executive search and leadership consulting services. The firm’s executive recruiters and leadership experts operate from principal business centers in North America, Latin America, Europe and Asia Pacific. In Mexico, Heidrick & Struggles operates offices in Mexico City and Monterrey. For more information about Heidrick & Struggles please visit www.heidrick.com

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Mexico’s peso has rallied to achieve its largest quarterly gain in 14 years rising 7.5 percent over the second quarter of the year after reaching a record low in March.

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We’re closely watching indicators in the US that would signal an improvement in consumer demand.  Mexico’s efforts to tackle the effects of the ongoing global financial crisis can help mitigate the impact but the recovery will come from an improved US economy.
 
“Mexico’s fate is so closely linked to the United States that they can’t get out of the recession on their own,” said Eugenio Aleman, a Latin America economist from Wells Fargo Bank.  “They are trying to smooth over the problems. The central bank has loosened policy. But there is not much the government can do.”
 
Looking for signs of recovery…
A report last Friday confirmed consumer confidence in the US tumbled more than expected in June, to a 28-year low. The report by the Reuters/University of Michigan said the confidence index fell to 56.7 from May’s 59.8. The figure is the lowest since the record low of 51.7 in May 1980.
 
Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans said the U.S. unemployment rate could get closer to 10 percent instead of 9.5 percent. He added that the jobless rate could peak later this year — earlier than a mid-2010 peak previously expected. This could signal a deeper fall but an earlier recovery.
 
Potential risks that can derail a recovery…
A current point of concern for many is soaring commodity prices. Food prices in the US have jumped 5% the past 12 months, with bakery products (up 10.5%), dairy (+11%) and oils (+12.8%) leading the way. Energy prices have skyrocketed. Fuel oil and other fuels have soared 50.7% in the past 12 months.

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Jose Ruiz is a Principal in Heidrick & Struggles’ Monterrey office. As an executive recruiter he has worked on executive search projects for multinational clients in industrial sectors and consumer markets. He can be reached at +52 (818) 8625-6521 or jruiz@heidrick.com

About Heidrick & Struggles International, Inc.
The world’s premier provider of senior-level executive search and leadership consulting services. The firm’s executive recruiters and leadership experts operate from principal business centers in North America, Latin America, Europe and Asia Pacific. In Mexico, Heidrick & Struggles operates offices in Mexico City and Monterrey. For more information about Heidrick & Struggles please visit www.heidrick.com

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