Jose Ruiz

The world is rapidly moving to a new carbon regime, with the G8 economies already on board and the G20 working hard to develop and implement a global solution to reduce carbon emissions. To take full advantage of the opportunities in the low carbon economy, while adeptly navigating the potential pitfalls that will ensue, organisations will require a new type of leader. Specifically, these individuals must be able to manage the new “triple bottom line” – the natural environment, the social and political system, and the global economy.

Are You Carbon Ready? explores the key questions that directors, senior executives and others should be asking as they prepare for the low carbon economy.

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By Chris Kraul – LATimes.com
December 11, 2009

Led by resource-rich Brazil, the region is forecast to enjoy 4.1% growth next year, far outpacing the U.S.

Reporting from Bogota, Colombia – From appliance stores in Brazil to auto assembly lines in Mexico, signs are evident that Latin America has seen the worst of the global economic crisis and is poised for solid expansion.

The region is expected to post economic growth of 4.1% next year, according to a forecast released Thursday by the United Nations’ Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean. That’s a stronger rebound than previously anticipated.

| Read full article

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A study to quantify and map the quality of human capital in 2008 and 2013

If we consider talent to be a global commodity, as precious as oil or water, then it should be possible to analyze it as a commodity; to predict its supply and demand. The Global Talent Index, developed in collaboration with the Economist Intelligence Unit, explored the distribution of talent in the world in 2007 and 2012.

When we developed the Global Talent Index, only three Latin American countries – Argentina, Brazil and Mexico – were included; their low performance within the global context came as no surprise.  The Latin America Talent Index uses the same methodology but allows closer examination of the region’s talent pool by assessing: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela.

In the past, the challenge for Latin American companies has been access to capital and technology in a market dominated by exporting, mining and agribusiness, oligopolies and government controlled companies. Business interests were dependent on government actions and vice versa. Leadership was important, but not a key success factor in fostering corporate growth and profitability.

Unprecedented advances have occurred since the early-1990s, helped by the opening up of markets, deregulation, the modernization of economies, greater integration and interaction with global markets, the development of local financial and capital markets, and the creation of large global companies headquartered in the region (‘multi-latinas’).  As a result, leadership and talent have started to emerge as important competitive factors. The 2008 global financial downturn has created new priorities and placed new demands on the current leaders. In the short term, companies may be concerned with quarterly results but in the long term the differentiator will be their ability to identify, develop and retain highly qualified talent. The Latin America Talent Index reveals such talent will continue to be scarce over the next five years, posing a challenge to companies and economies eager to continue their growth and consolidation.

Permanently reversing this trend relies heavily on government policies, business strategies and cultural values, and practical results may take time to appear. But as soon as awareness is raised amongst businesses, governments and individuals, and affirmative action adopted, the present and projected talent shortfall will start to be reversed.

This study represents an important first step in this process.

Manoel Rebello, Regional Managing Partner, Latin America
Heidrick & Struggles

| Download Full Latin America  Report (PDF document)

| Download Full Global Report (PDF document)

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What can we expect in 2010 as we continue to see signs the economy is beginning to recover and expand?  Uncertainty is gone. We’re certain it’s going to be a tough year but challenges will be different from those we encountered in 2009.
By Jose Ruiz

When 2009 began uncertainty filled the air and the economy paralyzed. It was like driving in dense fog. Trying to sort out what was around us, while we attempted to move forward with caution, hoping nothing would come out of nowhere and hit us. Swine flu did just that and it was not until June that the fog began to lift. We hit bottom, and it became evident that the recovery was going to take time and it was going to be tough.

Let’s take a broad look back at what happened from the perspective of Connie Consumer and Pete Producer. Back in 2006 Connie Consumer was flying high with a steady job, a house, retirement and investment accounts with values that were growing well beyond inflation. The Consumer family’s net worth was growing at a steady pace and they felt comfortable making major purchases. Pete Producer was doing very well struggling to keep up with demand. Pete and Producer Inc. hired more employees and made investments with an eye to the future. He needed to expand to not lose market share.

In 2008 Connie Consumer began to see her net worth slip as house prices began to drop. The foreclosure of her neighbor’s house put downward pressure on the price of her home and her investments were not performing well. The Consumer family is a responsible consumer so they began to hold back on some spending. Pete producer began to notice the Consumers where not spending as much as before and began to see his demand fizzle. Producer Inc. was already set for higher output. Pete producer made small adjustments but his inventory began to accumulate. Pete felt he had increased capacity too aggressively betting on the come and allowed his costs to get out of control. Towards the end of 2008 he had no choice and began to make cost adjustments and had to let some employees go.

By the start of 2009 Connie Consumer was facing a pay-cut and was uncertain about her own job. She could no longer count on the safety net of her home equity or her investment accounts. If she lost her job she would have a hard time making ends meet. The Consumer family hunkered down and increased their savings trying to spend only on the essentials. Pete Producer felt the pressure as his products stacked up in his warehouse. Producer Inc. had no choice and made deeper cost cuts, letting more people go and shutting down plants. Pete was in trouble. His costs were climbing and his product was not selling. Pete needed cash at a time when his bank reduced his credit line. He knew that increasing his prices would be suicide. In fact he had to provide discounts to empty his shelves. He accepted losses to guarantee cash flow.

At the end of June 2009 Connie felt a bit more secure at her job. Layoffs appeared to be over. The Consumer family was still dealing with lower pay because of the pay-cuts but they felt a bit more comfortable spending. Government programs had helped Pete reduce his inventory and Producer Inc. began to see demand come back.

So this is where we are today. Connie Consumer is cautious but spending. Pete Producer has his production lines working again. His reduced capacity is almost at its limit.

The uncertainty is gone but now comes a tricky recovery.

Pete Producer is seeing demand increase but he is very reluctant to increase capacity. His fear of loosing market share is outweighed by his fear of letting his costs get out of control. He will accept losing some customers to guarantee that he will stay afloat and profitable. Pete will grow at a very slow pace keeping a close eye on the Consumer family betting very little on the come.

Connie Consumer will probably get her full pay back by the end of the year. But her employer will be thinking along the same lines as Pete and will keep pay increases in check. In 2010 Connie will likely earn the same salary she did in 2008.

Now say hello to my little friends: inflation and loss of purchasing power.

2009 was a year characterized by the elimination of excess inventory and capacity (supply). When I talk about capacity it’s not only manufacturing capacity. Restaurants, dealerships and stores were closed, production lines were shut down. Overall, capacity to provide goods and services was reduced in reaction to a dramatic drop in demand. Prices remained mostly in check because supply outweighed demand.

Through the reminder of 2009 and 2010 demand will continue to grow at a slow pace. Supply and demand will even out and we will very likely see inflation levels above those that we saw in 2009. 

Higher inflation levels and a virtual freeze in salaries equals a loss in purchasing power adding another element to the already strong argument of a slow recovery.

2010 will be a year of recovery. But a slow and difficult recovery as Connie Consumer and Pete Producer keep an eye on each other before taking any steps, both protecting their cash and taking nothing for granted.

About Heidrick & Struggles International, Inc.
The world’s premier provider of senior-level executive search and leadership consulting services. The firm’s executive recruiters and leadership experts operate from principal business centers in North America, Latin America, Europe and Asia Pacific. In Mexico, Heidrick & Struggles operates offices in Mexico City and Monterrey. For more information about Heidrick & Struggles please visit www.heidrick.com

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Jobs: Lessons from the Great Recession (Business Week)

Those who still have jobs should get used to pay cuts, furloughs, and all-around uncertainty. Welcome to the age of the microentrepreneur

By Chris Farrell (Source: Businessweek.com)

Thanks to the Great Recession, another corporate taboo has been shattered: large-scale pay cuts. As a general practice, companies typically resist slashing worker pay during downturns, especially for their white-collar employees. The preferred response to falling profits has long been layoffs. The main reason both managers and workers prefer layoffs to pay cuts is that pink slips seem to concentrate the pain while pay cuts spread the distress.

“Employers are reluctant to cut the nominal rate of pay,” says Daniel J.B. Mitchell, professor emeritus at the UCLA Anderson School of Management and the School of Public Affairs. “It causes morale problems and antagonizes the workforce.”

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About Heidrick & Struggles International, Inc.
The world’s premier provider of senior-level executive search and leadership consulting services. The firm’s executive recruiters and leadership experts operate from principal business centers in North America, Latin America, Europe and Asia Pacific. In Mexico, Heidrick & Struggles operates offices in Mexico City and Monterrey. For more information about Heidrick & Struggles please visit www.heidrick.com

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It’s not done yet.  But signs continue to indicate that we are heading in the right direction.
by Jose Ruiz

Monterrey, Mexico (August, 25, 2009).-There are internal economic elements in Mexico that can be considered serious weaknesses if the global recession continues over a long period of time. As we continue to monitor key economic data it continues to look like Mexico will dodge the bullet.

80% of Mexico’s exports go to the United States.  The economy in Mexico will begin to pick-up steam when the U.S. consumer starts spending again.

This week U.S. consumer confidence proved that the sleeping giant might be waking up. The index climbed more than forecast at the same time that national home prices increased for the first time in three years.

The increase beyond forecast may be a surprise but the correlation should not be. Most of the net worth of the average American lies in two pots: The equity of their homes and their retirement savings. Both of which had been badly battered in the last couple of years leaving the average consumer feeling unprotected wondering what they would get by with  if they became part of the unemployment statistics.

While the official unemployment numbers are still of concern reports say the proportion of people who said jobs are hard to get decreased to 45.1 percent from 48.5 percent.

The positive environment in the U.S. is already having an effect in Mexico. The peso’s strength is at levels many thought we were never going to see again. It strengthened 0.1 percent to 12.8152 per U.S. dollar today.  At some point in trading it hit 12.7674, a number not seen since November 11 of last year.

The signs are encouraging and it appears we are on the path to recovery. There are internal concerns, but there is reason to continue to be optimistic as long as the U.S. economy continues to show signs of strength.

About Heidrick & Struggles International, Inc.
The world’s premier provider of senior-level executive search and leadership consulting services. The firm’s executive recruiters and leadership experts operate from principal business centers in North America, Latin America, Europe and Asia Pacific. In Mexico, Heidrick & Struggles operates offices in Mexico City and Monterrey. For more information about Heidrick & Struggles please visit www.heidrick.com

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By Jose Ruiz
Consumer Markets

Monterrey, Nuevo Leon (August 21, 2009).- A few days back I read an article about how Starbucks’ baristas were complaining about the new ‘lean’ initiative that was turning them into robots. The baristas – from Italian etymology referring to a person working behind the bar, in this case an espresso bar – were talking about the efforts to eliminate unnecessary movements and steps to improve efficiencies. Methods long used in manufacturing lines…and fast food restaurants.

A grinder next to an espresso machine

The article called it the McDonalization of Starbucks. McDonalization? I have to say I’m not sure what the baristas were complaining about. Starbucks has been in the fast food business for a long time. It’s been years since I’ve seen a stand alone espresso grinder or a tamper in a Starbucks coffee house.

When you walk into a neighborhood coffee house the smell is different. You can spot at least two stand alone grinders that are hand calibrated to get the perfect grain size of different types of espresso beans. The barista grinds the beans, places the grind in a porta-filter and compacts the grind with a tamper and then places the porta-filter in the machine to obtain a shot of espresso. The grinder settings, the hand pressure used to compact the grind into the porta-filter, the time used to extract the shot are all variables the barista controls. It’s an art. To prepare espresso drinks, such as the now famous, caramel machiatto or a cinnamon latte, the espresso shot is added to vapor heated milk. Achieving the right temperature and speed in heating the milk to release sweetness is an art itself. Syrups are then used to add more sweetness and flavors. It has been a very long time since Starbucks baristas have controlled those variables.

Coffee Syrups

Starbucks has long used super automatic espresso machines. At the push of a button, an internal grinder, grinds the right amount of espresso and automatically does everything else for an espresso shot to come out of its spout. There are no syrup racks at Starbucks, only pre-prepared concentrate mixes for their drinks. Don’t get me wrong. It’s not a bad thing. It guarantees me that a teenager who just got started will prepare my short latte the same way a seasoned barista can in the same store. It’s a good thing for consistency. But it’s no longer an art at Starbucks. Baristas can complain about the McDonalization of Starbucks but they really have not been true baristas in a long time.

A Tamper

But here is the irony. This morning I walked into a coffee shop. The smell was there. Two grinders stood tall on the bar along side a syrup rack. A tamper and a used grind box was there sitting next to a three group espresso machine. I asked the barista if he could do something special for me…and he did! I took my drink and sat on a real leather sofa to read the newspaper. I wanted to take out my laptop to write this but it just did not feel right.  Ahh, a real coffee shop: A McCafe. Yes, you read right: A McCafe sitting next to a McDonald’s sharing a terrace. McCafe’s are incorporating traditional coffee house techniques and training real baristas.  

Maybe those baristas complaining about the McDonalization of Starbucks should go work for a McCafe.

…Oh, and the price of my short latte was about 20% less compared to Starbucks.  

A McCafe: Notice the grinder on the bar and the real cups sitting on top of the espresso machine. It's a coffee house! They're getting it right.

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By Jose J. Ruiz – Heidrick & Struggles

Monterrey, Mexico (August 18, 2009).- Positive signs continue to bring hope that an economic recovery, though a slow and long one, has arrived. There is an emphasis on slow and long.

The peso dropped against the dollar by 1.3 percent on Monday, the single biggest drop since May 11, before climbing back and positioning itself slightly below 13 pesos per dollar around noon today.

Concerns were awaken a few days back as Finance Secretary Agustin Carstens said Mexico faces the worst “fiscal shock” in 30 years because of declining oil production. This means there will be little money left to stimulate the economy. However, the biggest factor in Mexico’s economic recovery will continue to be consumer demand in the United States simply because Mexico sends more than 80% of its exports to the U.S.

“The United States was not only at the origin of the crisis, it is central to any world recovery,” said Olivier Blanchard, the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund.

At least for now, the positive signs in the U.S. continue.

Automotive Industry
GM has called back over 1300 union workers as the company prepares to boost production during the second half of the year. In Mexico, GM recently inaugurated a transmission plant in San Luis Potosi. This is a great sign for Mexico considering 21% of exports come from the automotive industry.

Blanchard believes the recovery has started but has cautioned it can’t be sustained by government programs such “Cash for Clunkers”. The private sector needs to be the engine of economic activity.

Demand still needs to recover and it will take years for it to reach pre-recession levels but having inventories drop enough to kick-start plants that had be shut down is a great step forward.

Housing and Construction in the United States
There are still many negative sides to the housing equation in the United States. Foreclosures will continue to be fed by many variable-rate loans that will reset between now and 2012 putting downward pressure on pricing but for the first time in many years renting is now more expensive than buying for those with a good credit rating and cash in the bank.

The amount of deals in the market has stopped the price slide in places like San Diego where the medium price of a home in July stood at $320,000, up from $316,250 in June but still below July 2008′s $364,000. Some builders like KB home expect to show year-over-year increases in sales for the current quarter.

U.S. housing starts declined by 1 per cent in July, ending a two-month winning streak but despite missing expectations, watchers viewed the housing data as a largely positive development. The drop can be attributed to apartments since construction of single-family homes rose by 1 per cent to the highest level since October 2008, for the fifth straight monthly increase.

It’s too early to pop the Champaign bottle but it appears that activity in both the construction and automotive industries may have stabilized to a degree.

Jose Ruiz is a Principal in Heidrick & Struggles’ Monterrey office. As an executive recruiter he has worked on executive search projects for multinational clients in industrial sectors and consumer markets. He can be reached at +52 (818) 8625-6521 or jruiz@heidrick.com

About Heidrick & Struggles International, Inc.
The world’s premier provider of senior-level executive search and leadership consulting services. The firm’s executive recruiters and leadership experts operate from principal business centers in North America, Latin America, Europe and Asia Pacific. In Mexico, Heidrick & Struggles operates offices in Mexico City and Monterrey. For more information about Heidrick & Struggles please visit www.heidrick.com

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By Jose Ruiz

Monterrey,  Mexico (August 5, 2009).- I’ve said it more than a few times: A full manufacturing recovery in Mexico will be slow and very dependant on the automobile industry which makes up 20 percent of Mexico’s industrial production and it looks like we are headed in the right direction.

Factory orders in the US rose in June for the fourth time in five months, an unexpected gain and the latest sign that the ailing manufacturing sector is recovering

Cash-for-clunkers, the program in the US that gives up to $4,500 in rebates for trading in old gasoline chugging cars for newer fuel-efficient vehicles has injected new life into the automotive industry. Almost 250,000 consumers have taken advantage of the program.  This is not even close to a permanent solution, but it is certainly a life line for the automotive industry when it needs it the most. Dealerships had huge inventories going into the second half of the year when 2010 models start arriving. The program coupled with the automakers’ production cuts has slimed down inventories.

Dealers in the US have reported very slim inventories of the Jeep Patriot, Ford Focus, Fusion and Honda Civic. Some GM dealers are even reporting spot shortages of full size pick-ups.

This may not fix the overall demand issue but it has at least cleaned out the excess inventory of smaller models and given manufacturers a clean slate to plan production according to demand.

All of this is good news for Mexico’s automotive industry manufacturing facilities that supply parts and assemble small and compact vehicles.

Jose Ruiz is a Principal in Heidrick & Struggles’ Monterrey office. As an executive recruiter he has worked on executive search projects for multinational clients in industrial sectors and consumer markets. He can be reached at +52 (818) 8625-6521 or jruiz@heidrick.com

About Heidrick & Struggles International, Inc.
The world’s premier provider of senior-level executive search and leadership consulting services. The firm’s executive recruiters and leadership experts operate from principal business centers in North America, Latin America, Europe and Asia Pacific. In Mexico, Heidrick & Struggles operates offices in Mexico City and Monterrey. For more information about Heidrick & Struggles please visit www.heidrick.com

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By Jose Ruiz

Monterrey,  Mexico (August 3, 2009).- Overall the free fall appears to have slowed but we are still falling.  In the US the stabilization of consumer spending, unemployment benefits and the housing markets, a lessening of financial turmoil and increased government spending all suggest the longest recession since the 1930s may be close to ending.
 
In the U.S. Manufacturing shrank in July at the slowest pace in many months and factories moved closer to stabilization. In a Bloomberg News survey, The Institute for Supply Management’s factory gauge increased to 46.5, from 44.8 in June (readings less than 50 signal contraction).
 
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan believes the worst is behind us, “collapse, I think, is now off the table…I’m pretty sure we’ve already seen the bottom… In fact, if you look at the weekly production figures for various different industries, it’s clear that we’ve turned, perhaps in the middle of last month, the middle of July.” Greenspan said.
 
U.S. Recovery will be the first step for a recovery in Mexico but other concerns are looming.  A growing deficit and falling oil output may be sleeping monsters that can put added pressure on growth, the exchange rate and an already tricky inflation scenario.

Jose Ruiz is a Principal in Heidrick & Struggles’ Monterrey office. As an executive recruiter he has worked on executive search projects for multinational clients in industrial sectors and consumer markets. He can be reached at +52 (818) 8625-6521 or jruiz@heidrick.com

About Heidrick & Struggles International, Inc.
The world’s premier provider of senior-level executive search and leadership consulting services. The firm’s executive recruiters and leadership experts operate from principal business centers in North America, Latin America, Europe and Asia Pacific. In Mexico, Heidrick & Struggles operates offices in Mexico City and Monterrey. For more information about Heidrick & Struggles please visit www.heidrick.com

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