Has the recession bottomed out?
Recession in the US will bottom out in fourth quarter, says Moody’s economist Economy won’t ‘kick in to high gear’ until 2011 or 2012, Mark Zandi says.
Mark predicts the battered economy will begin a slow upward climb after the recession in the United States bottoms out in the fourth quarter of 2009,
“The economy won’t come roaring back,” he said. “The sectors that generally lead us out of a recession — housing and vehicles — are flat on their back and won’t revive rapidly. The economy will kick into high gear in 2011 and 2012.”
It is expected that China will lead the way followed by the United States. Mexico will likely follow since Mexico’s economy has suffered as the global crisis chokes demand in the U.S., which buys 80 percent of the country’s exports.
Mexico needs U.S. consumer demand to pick-up and it does not look good if consumer confidence is an indicator of future demand and unemployment is a driver of consumer confidence. The Congressional Budget Office expects the unemployment rate to keep rising through 2010 to peak over 10%.
It does not look like the recession in Mexico has bottomed out and it does not look like it will in the near future.
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Jose Ruiz is a Principal in Heidrick & Struggles’ Monterrey office. As an executive recruiter he has worked on executive search projects for multinational clients in industrial sectors and consumer markets. He can be reached at +52 (818) 8625-6521 or jruiz@heidrick.com
About Heidrick & Struggles International, Inc.
The world’s premier provider of senior-level executive search and leadership consulting services. The firm’s executive recruiters and leadership experts operate from principal business centers in North America, Latin America, Europe and Asia Pacific. In Mexico, Heidrick & Struggles operates offices in Mexico City and Monterrey. For more information about Heidrick & Struggles please visit www.heidrick.com
Mexico’s central bank cut its key interest rate by three quarters of a point Friday saying strong action was needed because the economy had contracted more than expected this year after a fall in exports to the United States and the national shutdown to control swine flu.
The peso remains strong floating around 13 pesos to a dollar and inflation in April was reported at 0.38%, an improvement over March’s 0.58%
¿Qué hace a un buen lider en tiempos de crisis económica?
It’s been a week headlined by swine flu as most of Mexico’s economic activity came to a screeching halt in unprecedented action to curb the spread of the disease.
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